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Leave it to the Raptors to leave us scratching our heads to the very end in this truly confusing season. Which of the many versions of the Raptors we’ve seen since November is the closest to what they really are and what they can be going forward? The one that started 4-19? Not really, lots of changes have been made since then. The one that responded to the arrival of Rudy Gay with a 7-3 run? No, not that one either. The players weren’t used to each other, they didn’t play particularly great in those games, but Gay bailed them out with clutch shooting. The team that stumbled from there then? Well, no, since three key pieces, Gay, Jonas Valanciunas and Amir Johnson were banged up to varying degrees during that stretch.

It’s always silly to base anything off of the dog days, the final 2-3 weeks of a season. Good players are rested, teams out of the playoffs finally play more freely with the pressure off, etc. But, that said, this group that has closed the year with a 7-3 stretch (before Wednesday’s finale against Boston), probably best represents what this team is. Throw out the .700 record though, they’re not this good. But Kyle Lowry seems more in tune with what head coach Dwane Casey wants than he has at any point of the season, DeMar DeRozan is finishing very strong, after starting extremely squad (in between, he was up and down). Johnson continues to play well and Gay has found his game again. When in, Jonas Valanciunas has been solid and rookies Quincy Acy and Terrence Ross have been providing a lift from the bench. Don’t expect any of those players to play as well as they have during this stretch all next season (Valanciunas and Ross aside, probably), but it’s something to build on going forward. This looks like a group that will be a playoff team, a 6-8 seed that will fight for the final home seed if all breaks right, even though no draft picks or big-name free agents are on the way.

The big things the Raptors will have to prove next year is (A) They can compete when the pressure is still on … and finish games correctly when the heat is on. We saw too little of that this year.

(B) That they can score efficiently to help make up for the fact the defence probably can only be middle of the pack at best, until Valanciunas fully develops, until Gay locks in on that end every night and until DeRozan reaches his potential in that area.

As for the draft:

Marcus Smart stunningly staying in school made what already was a draft extremely light on top-end talent even shorter in that regard. It also helped out the stock of players like Trey Burke, Michael Carter-Williams, Shane Larkin and Toronto’s Myck Kabongo. Each player moved up a spot with Smart staying in school.

Teams have been hoarding 2014 picks and Smart staying, along with James Michael McAdoo at UNC, who had a bad year but has a ton of potential still, only makes that crop look more enticing.

Having seen most of the stars of the group first-hand in recent weeks, I can say the hyping of that 2014 class is not unwarranted. There is some serious talent and it runs about 10-deep.

Better late than never, the Points Per Game returns, with thoughts on Toronto’s surprising win over Chicago Tuesday. Or maybe it shouldn’t have been so surprising, since so often in pro sports we see a team that was embarrassed – as Toronto was against Milwaukee – come out a night or two later primed for bear.

The starters came out on fire in both the first and third quarter, which usually is enough to get a win, and the Raptors just managed to hold off a late Bulls charge. Rudy Gay and Terrence Ross had it going from deep and Toronto was able to take advantage from the line, two of the few successful ways to beat the defensively excellent Bulls. Now, before we go too far in praising the visitors, remember, the Bulls were missing top four players Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng and Taj Gibson. Gibson and Noah are two of the top five or six defenders in the entire NBA.

More thoughts:

- Quincy Acy has really given the Raptors a lift of late. In a season that has been hugely disappointing, the fact that Acy looks like he can be an NBA player is a great sign for the franchise. With Ed Davis gone and Andrea Bargnani mercifully on the move as soon as a good offer comes in, the team badly needs some frontcourt depth behind Jonas Valanciunas and Amir Johnson. Acy has shown that he has a future as a reserve big.

- It’s amazing that the Bulls compete no matter who is missing and it’s a shame Chicago’s loyal fans have not been able to see this group at full strength. With Rose and everybody else, Chicago’s probably the East’s second best team.

- These might be the dog days of the season, but don’t tell that to Dwane Casey, who played Johnson 45 minutes because that was his only shot at a win. You can say the wins don’t really matter at this point, but it’s always better to collect as many wins as possible when your future is cloudy. The more games the Raptors win to finish the year, the easier it is for everybody to keep their jobs.

- That said, it’s amazing, considering how banged up Johnson has been this year, that he is able to play 45 minutes at this point of the season. There can’t be 10 tougher guys in the entire league than Amir Johnson.

- Jonas Valanciunas’ 12-game double figure scoring streak came to an end because he played his fewest minutes since March 15th. After he scarily was carted off at the end of the game, it’s good to hear that X-rays were negative. The Raptors need Valanciunas to become a low post threat down the line and that will come, but right now, that’s not his game. It will come. Right now, his faceup game is incredibly polished for a rookie big man. If Acy has been a pleasant surprise, Valanciunas has been the biggest positive of this lost season.

- Terrence Ross has been mixing up his game more over the past month or so, and it has worked. Instead of just launching threes, he’s been able to score from other areas of the floor. Partly as a result, Ross has shot 50% or better in seven of his past nine games.

How about that, a Raptors laugher! It’s been a while. Things are looking dire in Detroit and the Lawrence Frank era seems to be moving closer to an end, though I believe he still has a year on his deal to go. Remember, Frank and Dwane Casey were the two finalists in Toronto. Now, after two seasons, both are on shaky ground even though all looked good at the conclusion of the 2011-12 season for both of them. Greg Monroe, for one, looks fed up with the way things are going in Detroit and the lack of fight in many of his teammates not named Jose Calderon, Brandon Knight or Andre Drummond.

Some thoughts on Friday’s game:

- Far more positives than negatives on this night, but, let’s get the negatives out of the way: DeMar DeRozan’s shot selection was horrendous early on. He seemed to be making a point of taking the most difficult and/or lowest percentage shots possible. To his credit, he was able to be far more effective later on.

- Jonas Valanciunas still has lots of work to do defensively. One particular area of weakness is responding quickly enough to when the ball is put on the floor. That said, Greg Monroe is a very mobile big, so it makes sense that he’ll beat Valanciunas off the bounce a few times. And, as a whole, Monroe was held to a brutal 3-for-11 shooting line, in part by the big Lithuanian.

-Kyle Lowry was extremely careless early. Still, he recovered from the miscues to take far better care of the ball the rest of the way.

- Besides the turnovers, the biggest problem with Toronto’s offence of late and before the third quarter explosion, has been a lack of movement. Players are standing around, not cutting and not setting enough screens. It has made the offence easy to defend and it allowed Detroit to get off to a quick lead. One guy who helps get things on track: Landry Fields, who is always on the move.

Positives:

- The aforementioned movement by Fields. He’s a guy that helps teams win, overpaid or not.

- Rudy Gay’s back doesn’t seem to be bothering him much of late. That’s back-to-back dominant games and five good ones in a row when he’s been able to play big minutes (though he did his damage in one third quarter run in this one). That should quiet a few of those freaking out and trying to convince the world he’s the worst player ever.

- Valanciunas continued his great run on offence with another clinic. Valanciunas (14, 14 and 4 blocks) keeps getting better and more effective. When teamed with Amir Johnson, Valanciunas has been superb. He’s shooting 62.6% in March, 82.9% from the line and a ridiculous 80% or so over his past seven games. Give the man more touches.
With Lithuanians dotting the sparse crowd like they did earlier in the season, Valanciunas continued to impress.

- As expected Jose to Calderon to Andre Drummond works very well and is pretty to see.
- Drummond looks like an impact player, but he’s extremely limited offensively. Is he ever going to be a guy you can rely on and keep in games late? Time will tell. Rip Bryan Colangelo for his many missteps, but I can’t get on the bash him for passing on Drummond bandwagon. Drummond’s lone season at UCONN was horrendous. He`s not a power forward, and the Raptors were already committed to developing future franchise centre Jonas Valanciunas, who is a far more rounded player. There were few signs he’d make it as an NBAer, despite his ridiculous physical gifts. He can`t shoot free throws at all and all he can do is score at the bucket and still gets lost at times defensively. Not to mention his draft interview was hilarious for all the wrong reasons, sources say. Drummond said he preferred to fix computers than play basketball. It`s hard to sell yourself on a guy who did very little to sell you on him. To Detroit`s credit, they looked past all of that and took a gamble at N0. 9 that the other teams wouldn`t. They got an NBA player. Whether he`s one that helps you win games is still to be decided. Of course, it`s also very much up in the air whether Terrence Ross, taken a pick earlier, will become a player that helps you win as well.

Things looked good for the Raptors early on on Wednesday. But repeating a familiar pattern, the wheels eventually fell off. Yes, losing Amir Johnson to injury (and maybe it’s time to shut him down to make sure he doesn’t keep getting banged up) was the catalyst to another collapse, but it wasn’t the only reason. Atlanta remembered how to shoot the ball (and that’s an extremely solid shooting group, Josh Smith aside) and was aided by the fact the remaining Raptors seemed to lose interest in defending. Jeff Teague lit up Kyle Lowry and Lowry’s defensive play continues to be a massive concern. It’s hard to imagine he was once one of the top five defensive point guards in the game. Teague’s had a fantastic season, but 13 assists against a single turnover and 24 points on 9-for-15 shooting is all-star calibre play, and he’s not that good.

More thoughts:

You have to love Jonas Valanciunas’ fight. Al Horford is an all-star and one of the most underrated players in the NBA, but Valanciunas went at him and had a fair amount of success against him on offence. Sure, Horford burned him at the other end, but Valanciunas remains a work in progress defensively. He remains the most encouraging part of this season for the franchise. If he continues to progress in the post, the team might be able to get by with Amir Johnson beside him, instead of adding a starter who operates in the post.

Another good offensive outing from Terrence Ross.

I liked John Jenkins coming out of college and he’s been a solid bench shooter for the Hawks.

It will be fascinating to see what Atlanta, a team that overachieved all year in a season that could have been a write-off, does in the off-season. Most of the teams players are coming off of the cap and there will be a ton of room available to take a run at players.

It looked like a certainty that the Lowry to Oklahoma City pick would be in the 8-11 range not too long ago, but if this freefall continues any longer, all of a sudden, the Thunder could be looking at a 5-8 prize instead. It doesn’t make much of a difference in this draft, but picking as high as possible is always desirable. If the freefall lasts the rest of the year, suddenly, the Raptors have a shot at moving into the top 3 and keeping the pick.

Sacramento and Washington have now caught Toronto at 26 wins and are playing much better than the Raptors. Detroit, Minnesota, New Orleans and Phoenix all could pass them as well. It’s not crazy to think Toronto could have the fourth-best odds heading into the lottery. Is it better to keep the pick and add a top 3 player who would be more like a 7-10 pick in most drafts or surrender the pick now and hope for the playoffs next year and beyond? Nerlens Noel isn’t a fit, but Marcus Smart or Ben McLemore would be ideal additions. I never would have thought the Raptors would collapse like this and be close enough to consider this scenario, but the chances of hanging on to the pick this year have suddenly become decent.