Blogs Courtside

Let’s be frank, at this point, nobody really wants to discuss how the Rudy Gay and others-less Toronto Raptors did against the New York Nuggets. So, let’s turn our attention to next year. Here is my take on who will be back, who should be back and how I see things going:

Quincy Acy: Showed more than expected and looks like an NBA player. Should get more burn next season, especially if a big man doesn’t come back when Andrea Bargnani is traded.

Alan Anderson: Definitely made himself some money with his scoring outbursts and team-best perimeter defence, but probably has priced himself out of a return to Toronto. Would think he’ll get more than the veteran minimum and with Rudy Gay, DeMar DeRozan, Terrence Ross and Landry Fields around, might not be a fit anymore either. The caveat being a DeRozan trade were to happen, he’d still have a place. I would thank Anderson for his contributions and wish him well and commend him on getting more money than the minimum.

Andrea Bargnani: Season was nothing short of a disaster. Unless the market is completely barren until he can return to action and prove he can stay on the court for more than 5 games in a row, he’ll be dealt long before training camp. It should have been done long ago, but at least it will be done. What will the return be? Hard to say. An expiring and a late draft pick or a high second? An overpaid player who is still better than Bargnani?

DeMar DeRozan: DeRozan clearly took steps forward, particularly as a passer and finisher, but could not sustain great start, possibly because he had one of the league’s biggest workloads. It’s still not clear what DeRozan is. His defence still leaves a ton to be desired and his shot selection and outside shooting still has a way to go. If he can cut down on the tough mid-range attempts he favours, stick a few more threes and get to even a league average level defensively, his large new contract becomes close to a bargain. But if not, it’s a few million a year too much. I still don’t get why he was given the extension before this season instead of after. Yes, there’s a shortage of quality shooting guards and many teams have cap space this summer, but the Raptors could have matched any offer. With Rudy Gay on hand, DeRozan’s future in Toronto goes from a certainty to up in the air. The duo share far too many strengths and weaknesses to be an ideal long-time pair. Gay’s not going anywhere, so that leaves DeRozan, a great guy, a hard worker who is improving and still has another level or two to get to, as a question mark going forward.

Landry Fields: A tough first season in Toronto for Fields, who will always have to deal with the pressure of being rewarded with a contract that probably pays him $2 million more a season than anybody believes he is worth. Expect a much better Fields next year when he will come in not dealing with a mysterious injury and with lesser expectations. Overpaid, sure, but still a useful player because of the little things he does. If he can ever regain his shooting form, he will be able to lay claim to more minutes. He’ll be back.

Rudy Gay: Coming off of the worst season of his career, Gay will have a lot to prove. Fully healthy and with something to play for, he’ll be a lot better. Needs to get back to his prior level to quiet all the whining about his hefty contract. He’ll be back and will be expected to be the team’s leading scorer next season.

Aaron Gray: Good veteran leader and a hard worker but only useful against the NBA’s biggest bodies. Will pick up player option and return for another year if Dwane Casey’s back. If Casey’s not, might be included in a package.

Amir Johnson: Team’s best player for second time in three years. Will get some most improved player votes. Needs a summer of rest to get his achy body back in top form. Has two years left on a deal many foolishly ripped for years, without actually paying attention to how effective Johnson was. Without major changes, fits as a starter since he doesn’t demand shots and gets easy put-backs. If DeRozan and Bargnani go and a low-post scorer comes back, could return to sixth man role, but more likely, he’ll be the starter.

Linas Kleiza: Has never made it all the way back from devastating injury. Will be amnestied unless Bargnani market completely disappears, which is highly unlikely.

Kyle Lowry: By far the most disappointing Raptor of 2012-13. Most talented player on the team that has gotten most out of talent over the years (Bargnani and Gay might have more actual talent, but haven’t gotten as much out of it as Lowry has over the years). Came in out of shape and never looked right all year. Had great start and dominated training camp, but after first injury wasn’t the same and then kept getting hurt. Tried to change game too much and it hurt him. Needs to be old aggressive self on offence next year and needs to find a way to once again become a top 10 defensive point guard. He once held that status. Relationship with Casey isn’t ideal and Lowry needs to take ownership that a lot of the blame falls on him. Which Lowry shows up in 2013-14 could determine how good the Raptors are. Expect him to be strong, since he will be playing for a new contract.

John Lucas III: Played some good minutes and kept team alive in many games but isn’t the answer as a backup point guard. Has a place as a scorer off of the bench, but it might be back in Chicago, not in Toronto. Great team guy and one of hardest workers in the league. My guess is he’s back if Casey is and he’ll go elsewhere if Casey is gone.

Mickael Pietrus: A non-factor who might be done as an NBA player.

Terrence Ross: More struggles than success as a rookie, but still showed enough flashes for everybody to realize that he has considerable potential. Needs to live in gym and get stronger in off-season. Team believes he will be a good starter in the league in a couple of years.

Sebastian Telfair: Hasn’t turned any heads as a Raptor and trading a second, even if the reasoning made some sense and seconds rarely work out, remains a bit of an unnecessary move. Probably plays elsewhere, but Toronto will need to find a backup, so could be in mix.

Jonas Valanciunas: The Big V is the Big Hope of Raptors nation. Considering how young bigs usually perform in their first crack at the NBA, season has to be considered a significant success. Yes, there were mistakes a plenty, but there was also a ton to like. Valanciunas is going to be a very good player for years to come. Like Ross, needs to get stronger in off-season and would be wise to spend time with a master of low-post play. If he gets better footwork and some effective moves inside, he would solve a major problem for the Raptors.

Dwane Casey: The most encouraging part of the 2011-12 season, Casey had a tough second act in Toronto. Nobody saw this coming after the previous season was directed so well. But it’s been a bad year for Casey, his staff and his players. From botched inbounds, to late collapses galore, to curious rotational decisions, things just never came together. He and Bryan Colangelo are at odds with each other and it will be very interesting to see what happens. Lowry’s inability to get on the same page as Casey hurt the team greatly. I’d give him half a year to see what he can do with a healthy roster and maybe add another x’s and o’s guy to help out with the play-calling. If you let Casey go, who do you bring in? None of the elite coaches will take the job. And if you let him go, can you keep Colangelo who will have let go yet another head coach?

Bryan Colangelo: Almost a lock to be back at this point, but should he be? He held on to Bargnani for far too long, jumped the gun on a DeRozan extension, gave Fields far too much money and has built a non-playoff team that has no cap space and no picks this summer. On the other hand, he’s drafted pretty well here (give him a solid B for his draft work) and has been able to fix a lot of his mistakes (Turkoglu, etc.) so maybe he can fix the Bargnani mistake as well? And, again, who else is going to take on this team? You could hand it over to Ed Stefanski, but does that change much. MLSE has already gone this far in with the Raptors. Nobody is going to come in and unravel everything. Like Casey, give Colangelo half a season to see what this group he has built can do.

If they’re still no good at that point, clean house and finally do a proper rebuild.

Five straight losses in Charlotte for the Raptors – against these guys? It’s stunning. While the rest of the league toys with the Bobcats, far and away the NBA’s worst squad over the past 2.5 seasons, the Raptors somehow act like they’re playing a powerhouse. It’s bizarre and it’s a bit embarrassing for the Raptors franchise. To be taken seriously, you just can’t keep losing to the league’s version of the Washington Generals (and I know at least one of the losses was a robbery, with Andrea Bargnani being fouled earlier in the season but no call being given). Charlotte wins 12 games a season, 2-3 of them can’t be against the Raptors.

If the Raptors are to be a playoff team next year, the team simply must stop losing regularly to the dregs of the league like Charlotte and Sacramento. Don’t just get up for teams like Miami, try to assert yourself against a beatable team to pick up easy wins.

Brief thoughts:

- A better offensive outing from DeMar DeRozan, but he’s still playing too many minutes and he could not stop Gerald Henderson when he was on him.

- Always have liked Henderson’s game and believed he’d be a solid NBA player, but he’s been even better than expected. He’s going to make some coin this summer.

- The second quarter let-down, in particular, was brutal. Charlotte was on the ropes in the first but was allowed to gain confidence in the second and used that momentum to take control.

- Amir Johnson was due for an off night after dominating over the past two weeks, and this one was it.

- Kyle Lowry made some bad turnovers (and 5 in all) which hurt the Raptors, but he also took the second-most shots on the team (13) and the more that happens, the better. He’s the only starter who is effective from three (though he went just 1-for-6 on Wednesday) and needs to keep taking those shots. Just as important, he needs to keep attacking the rim, since DeRozan can’t be the only guy attacking every night. Ideally, Rudy Gay, Lowry and DeRozan would all play aggressive.

- Again, Josh McRoberts was an X-Factor. He’s been a nice fit in Charlotte. Like the last time these teams met, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist didn’t look very good. I think he’s going to be an excellent player one day, but the long season and all of the losing appear to have worn him down a bit.

We haven’t seen them here since Super Bowl Sunday, but in case anybody was hibernating since then, these guys are still really, really good. Good enough to be on a streak that is approaching record proportions. One more win puts the Heat in 2nd place all-time in terms of winning streaks and it’s for good reason. If the group has a weakness, it makes up for it with sheer talent.

The thing that always sticks out (if you want to pick just one) about the sublime LeBron James is his vision. His game has always had more Magic Johnson than Michael Jordan in it, and that’s particularly true when you look at basketball IQ, vision and court awareness.

- Ray Allen has really found his game during this winning streak and he gives the Heat another fearsome weapon. Nobody in the league can guard James 1-on-1, few, if any, can guard Dwyane Wade 1-on-1 and Chris Bosh is a very tough matchup for any big man because of his length, shooting ability and quickness. That means guys like Allen and Shane Battier get a ton of open looks from three (because opponents double the Big Three), and it’s a huge reason why Miami is so unstoppable.

As for the Raptors:

- As we’ve seen all year, they don’t quit and hang around almost every night. A huge third quarter had a few people thinking upset (and I mean a few literally, as in, three people, in the world), but then the Heat recalibrated in the fourth and that was that. The 51-26 rebounding edge for the Raptors prevented a laugher, since Miami shot 58.2% and the Raptors made just 2-of-10 three pointers (compared to 10-of-22).

- Another strong outing from Rudy Gay, which will stop some of the hand-wringing about his poor start to his Toronto tenure. He seems to be healthier and playing closer to the way he has historically.

- Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Ross, Landry Fields, John Lucas III and old reliable Amir Johnson should also be singled out as the best Raptors on this night.

- Meanwhile, the backcourt was horrendous. The worst combined game of the year for Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan and probably the worst game of the year individually for Lowry. Lowry just couldn’t make a bucket. Mario Chalmers is an above average defender, but he wasn’t the reason for the struggles. It was just a bad shooting game from Lowry. These happen. DeRozan’s struggles were more alarming. He forced bad shot after bad shot, couldn’t stop anybody, didn’t have the passing game that has been so good for him this year going at all (0 assists for first time since Jan. 18). Perhaps the huge minutes he has played are starting to catch up with him? It would be a shame to finish the year like this, since he has taken a step forward if you look at the season as a whole.

Let’s get this out of the way because there was an awful lot of snark on Twitter last night when I mentioned Rudy Gay was answering some of his critics with his performance. Yes, the Bobcats are awful. Horrendous. Just a step up from last season’s horrible group. But they still are an NBA basketball team, not a rec league squad and they still have a few talented defenders like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Jeff Adrien and Gerald Henderson. MKG spent a lot of time on Gay and that’s not a walk in the park even though MKG is still a rookie. Gay was able to dominate, showcasing his wide array of skills. And that was more what I was getting at with the tweet. Forget the final stats, which were impressive. It was more about Gay showing what he is capable of, what he can do when completely on his game. It was a message to those people jumping overboard on the hyperbole spouting nonsense like he’s a terrible basketball player, a below average talent, a non-factor and a guy who doesn’t improve the Raptors. It’s nonsense. Yes, he makes 25% or so too much money. Yes, he often isn’t engaged enough and far too often settles for poor shots. But, there’s no denying he has the size, athleticism and skill to be a really good player at times. It won’t be all the time, it probably won’t even be half of the time, but it is there. And before you say the same can be said about Andrea Bargnani, it’s just not true. Bargnani simply doesn’t quite have the same total package as Gay. And he certainly doesn’t show what he is capable of anywhere close to as often. Gay will be fine. He’ll be  solid piece going forward. The trick will be re-signing him at a discount instead of making the huge mistake of giving him another full max contract (A contract starting around $13M a season is a far better idea).

Thoughts on the game:

- Gay was especially dominant in the first quarter, where he basically could do no wrong. He needs to focus in and try to make a habit of having excellent first quarters. That would be a huge benefit for the Raptors as getting out to an early lead is always a good thing. The odds say if you win the first quarter, you’re more likely to win the game.

- Though DeMar DeRozan was struggling mightily to score and was angry at the refs all night, he still did some things well. He was far more effective, despite the lack of scoring, against Adrien and Henderson than he has been in the past. He was able to break them down and get to the line repeatedly and he also showed off the biggest wrinkle he has added to his game this season – far better court vision. He was beating defenders, especially early on, and setting up his teammates for good looks. One thing we haven’t seen much of this season is DeRozan creating an open look from three from Kyle Lowry. Since Lowry’s the only consistent outside shooter in the starting lineup, it’s a good play and one we’ll probably see more of next season, though you can expect a fully healthy Gay to be 5-8% more effective from three next season, making him more of a factor from outside.

- Still like Jonas Valanciunas going to that running hook he favours. It is one of the most difficult shots in the game to stop and will be a nice weapon for the youngster going forward. He continues to show flashes of what he’s going to be.

- Fellow youngster Terrence Ross continues to miss some easy shots every game, but the fact that he’s getting them, instead of simply firing away from outside, is a good thing. Eventually, some of them are going to fall and adding in some variety will give him better looks with his jumper.

- Sebastian Telfair continues to make a case for the backup point guard role next season. The team could do a lot worse on a minimum deal.

- Again, boy are those Bobcats bad. They have a few pieces, but if one of them is struggling – MKG was the guy who couldn’t do anything right on the night – they just don’t have enough to win games

- About the only guy who impressed amongst the visitors was Josh McRoberts, who is probably showing more in his Charlotte stint than he did in his entire Indiana and Los Angeles tenures. He’s not a bad second big off of the bench and is an underrated passer.

- Charlotte badly needs some quality vets. A Keyon Dooling/Avery Johnson/Derek Fisher-type of mentor backing up Kemba Walker, and a bruising veteran big man who has been around. They also would benefit from bringing back a guy like that on the bench – Charles Oakley.

- Speaking of Oakley, another Oakley-esque rebounding game from Amir Johnson’s. Amir’s been so effective and so consistent, that you almost gloss over his accomplishments by accident because you’re so used to them. That’s about as big a compliment as you can give a player. For the second time in three seasons, Johnson has been the best Raptor.

If the Raptors could only play Phoenix all the time they’d be juggernauts. No Steve Nash apparently finally means Toronto can beat the Suns. That’s a season sweep for the first time in ages (the Raptors also beat Nash – though he was on the Lakers this time – for the first time in years earlier this season).

Phoenix is a mess and minus Marcin Gortat, had zero resistance or interest in this one, but there were positives to be gleaned.

- You can call off the APB on Terrence Ross. The rookie scored 10 points for the first time since late-January and snapped an ugly four game goose egg streak. Now that he knows he’ll be seeing 20 minutes every night as long as he plays hard, Ross has a chance to get his confidence back and close the year on a high note, which will help him heading into next season.

- Sebastian Telfair clearly took his departure from the Valley of the Sun personally. He went at his old mates and was a major reason why the Raptors won, since the game was still close when he entered. Telfair and Amir Johnson basically obliterated the Phoenix bench and then did the same to the starters (minus Gortat). In lieu of finding a youngster to develop at the point, I don’t see why Telfair wouldn’t be a good fit as Kyle Lowry’s backup going forward. His shooting has improved significantly, he’s still an excellent passer and he can defend. As a backup, he’d do a good job and at the veteran’s minimum, he’d be a good piece.

- We’re seeing Jonas Valanciunas operate in the post more often these days and he’s coming along. Once he adds some strength, he’ll be an important part of the offence.

- The ball moved a lot better against the Phoenix pylons, which led to better looks and better decisions. The more often that happens and the more often the ball doesn’t stick, the better. The Raptors have a bunch of “iso-hungry” guys, especially DeMar DeRozan and Rudy Gay who need to be encouraged as often as possible not to take the worst shots in the game – long two-point attempts.

- Lowry’s looking to run a lot more, especially early in games and the more that happens, the better.

- Gay’s clearly not 100%, backs can be wonky for a while, but he’s not the type to want to sit on the sidelines.

- Andrea Bargnani again had a pulse and every time that happens the odds of him exiting Toronto increase. The more OK-good games he can deliver down the stretch the better chance the Raptors have to extract some sort of value for him in the off-season.

Let’s delve right into the PPG today:

- Raptors again showed a lot of fight, forcing overtime in a game that appeared to be lost, against a better squad. Milwaukee’s definitely better when Rudy Gay’s on the sidelines. I don’t like the Brandon Jennings-Monta Ellis pairing and I think the Bucks would be better if they could find a way to pay J.J. Redick and let Ellis go in the off-season (highly doubtful Redick will stick around), but they’re a solid 7 or 8 seed in the woeful East. Larry Sanders is an absolute beast and Ersan Ilyasova is a talented player who has found his game. A bit better than a poor man’s Ryan Anderson.

- My immediate reaction to the insertion of Bargnani into the starting lineup at the expense of Jonas Valanciunas, like most people, was one of shock. It sends a bad message to Valanciunas, who has been playing very well and to the team, since Bargnani hasn’t always been putting in a good enough effort.Why reward a guy that’s been loafing at times (like usual)? On the flip side, Dwane Casey is desperate to get Bargnani going and this was pretty much his last play. And it worked, to a point. Bargnani had a pulse, he was a lot better defensively than he has been and the 4-for-11 shooting was a bit deceiving, he missed a couple he normally makes, which would have made his line prettier. He clearly doesn’t take to coming off of the bench (something I expected, since, as I’ve said for a while, he fancies himself a starter and doesn’t do well coming in cold), so this is perhaps the best way to try to get his value up heading into the summer. It’s not ideal, Valanciunas has been playing great basketball and Casey already declines to use him in fourth quarters even though, to these eyes, he’s earned that right through his play, and now he’s losing first quarter minutes. But, It’s not going to make or break Valanciunas’ development if he comes off the bench for a while (even though he should be starting). And Jonas is not the type to sulk about it. So, if it’s the way the team gets Bargnani out of town, though not ideal, it’s probably the right move, now that the season is lost anyway.

- Speaking of that, if there were any doubts about the possibility of a “playoff push” they’ve vanished now with that loss to Milwaukee. Once again, time to play the kids.

- Kyle Lowry has found his game lately on offence. He notched a triple double and continues to make good decisions with the ball, though the turnovers still are a bit high. Defensively, he’s been a bit better, but has not been the Lowry of old (Memphis/Houston). He forced Jennings into some tough shots, but couldn’t stop his penetration and didn’t make life difficult enough for Jennings, who reeled off 19 assists.

- Valanciunas was aggressive again and attacked, no matter who was guarding him. He even went up against Larry Sanders, the league’s leading shot-blocker. Lowry continues to look for him on the pick and roll, which is a good long-term sign for the Raptors. That’s going to be a big part of the offence, starting next year.

- Hate on the Landry Fields contract all you want, but the man knows how to play basketball. He helps the team with his movement, his defence, his rebounding. If he makes jumpers, it’s a bonus, but he’s a useful piece.

- Still don’t fully understand the Sebastian Telfair trade. I know there are protections on the second rounder so there’s something like a 40% chance it never gets conveyed, and I know the odds of getting somebody decent with a second round pick is 25% or so, but Telfair isn’t even playing. Surely there were other third point guard types out there that could have been picked up for free. The Raptors believe cutting $500K next year off the tax and adding a capable PG in case Lowry went down was worth the small chance something of value was added with the 2nd. I would say in this new CBA world, seconds will be more valuable than ever, but they’re still a crap shoot.

- Credit to Alan Anderson and John Lucas III for getting the Raptors to overtime, but just as Bargnani needs to be put in an opportunity to succeed to up his value, Terrence Ross needs to be put into a position to succeed and given minutes since he is a big part of Toronto’s core going forward. Right now, he’s not developing at all, because he’s playing sparse minutes and doesn’t have a defined role.

- So, does Sanders have most improved player honours locked up? He’ll be in the top 3 in voting, that’s for sure. He’s disruptive defensively, the most similar player we’ve seen to Ben Wallace since Wallace retired. But Sanders is taller than Wallace and has better hands.

Now can we all finally admit what I’ve been saying for weeks (months?)? That the hole this group dug is simply too deep to get out of? There will be no playoffs, though there are still a few questions to be answered. My top 3:

(1) Will they play hard right to the end, even when they realize that the playoff math won’t work? If they do, the pick surrendered to Oklahoma City likely only will be in the 9-11 range, instead of the 4-8 range. That makes the Lowry deal look better. Trading a 4-6 pick for Lowry looks more like a bad deal than trading a 9-11 pick, which, especially in this draft, looks like a solid deal (as long as Lowry is playing the way he can).

That said, this is a weird draft, in that usually the 3-5 picks are quite a bit better than the 8-11 selections. In 2013, the separation isn’t as considerable as it is in most drafts.

(2) Will Dwane Casey play his rookies? With the playoff writing on the wall, do Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Ross and even Quincy Acy get more burn? Valanciunas and Ross are considered long-term starters and key components and Acy has shown that he can be a helpful energy big off of the bench. The more they play to close out this season, the better they’ll be next season.

(3) Where do they go with Bargnani? The fans are on him. He’s played bad basketball. He isn’t playing with confidence and it’s unclear what his role is. As has been pointed out many times, he can’t play with Valanciunas because they are a spectacularly poor defensive pair, but Valanciunas needs to play big minutes (the Valanciunas-Bargnani pairing had its best defensive performance of the year on Friday though, so maybe there is some hope, though I would doubt it). Valanciunas should be in when Amir Johnson is in and if Amir gets into foul trouble, unfortunately, Valanciunas needs to come out. But he should be playing late in games with Johnson and only a maximum of 5 minutes a night at the same time as Bargnani.

- Was interesting to see all of the Raptors stand up to cheer Bargnani when he checked in to try to make up for the fact a good chunk of the arena booed his entrance.

- It seems Rudy Gay is no longer the only Raptor who actually looks for Valanciunas when he heads to the hoop. Gay’s confidence in the big rookie is rubbing off as Kyle Lowry actually made a point, at least early, of trying to hit him when he was in motion. Could have seen more of that though, since that was one way to take advantage of the plodding Roy Hibbert, who can’t come close to keeping up with the mobile Valanciunas. The evolution this season against Hibbert has been interesting. Valanciunas was soundly outplayed by Hibbert in this one after schooling Hibbert the last time the two teams met. They basically played to a draw in the season opener and Hibbert was better in the second game. As a whole, the rookie fared well against the former all-star and should be able to win the matchup more often going forward as he gets stronger and more experienced.

- Lowry’s starting to show his high-level vision of late. The key here is doing it when on the run. Lowry is great when the pace picks up, capable of threading the needle on passes. When things slow down, he is far less effective. After the first quarter, we didn’t see the same vision from Lowry.

- That’s it for today. Will ignore the rest of that stinker of a game and the shoddy Raptors offence.