Archive for the ‘Economy’ Category

Voter preference by household income: Parties of the rich and poor

- November 14th, 2014

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The Liberals have just released a new online video (see below) arguing against the Harper government’s income splitting plan. Liberal Justin Trudeau has vowed to roll back income splitting for parents if he’s elected PM.  Thomas Mulcair this week has vowed the NDP will fight the plan thought he was a bit more cagey about what he’d do if he became PM and income splitting was still in place. Given these arguments, I wondered about how income levels matched up to political preference. David Coletto, CEO of pollster Abacus Data, sent me this data set, Read more…

Did Canada’s central bank governor tell young people to work for free?

- November 4th, 2014


Yesterday, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, spoke in Toronto and when Bloomberg’s Greg Quinn reported on his remarks, he zeroed in on some things Poloz said about youth unemployment in Canada. As Quinn reported, “How bad are things in Canada’s job market? Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz says bad enough for young people to consider working for free.”

Today, in Ottawa, Poloz was in front of the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance and Liberal MP Scott Brison wanted to pick up on that theme. Listen, above, to their exchange.

Parliament’s budget watchdog warns: We’re not as rich as we think!

- October 21st, 2014

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Canada’s Parliamentary Parliamentary Budget Office is warning all political parties that while the federal treasury is about to overflow with billions in surpluses, any major tax cuts or new spending programs could plunge the country back into deficit.

But with political silly season upon us in advance of the 2015 general election, it’s unlikely the three major parties are going to pay much heed to this warning.

The PBO said Tuesday  [pdf] federal coffers will spill over with more than $53 billion in surpluses between now and the spring of 2020 but those riches are mostlyf from one-time benefits like the sale of government assets and an economy temporarily growing faster than expected. Read more…

Fun with surpluses, Part II: Are we richer than we think?

- October 14th, 2014
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At its Flickr page, the NDP have posted this pic of Leader Thomas Mulcair campaigning in Iqaluit earlier this year.

Last week, the economists at TD Bank put out a helpful paper in which they tried to calculate a) how much extra money the federal government is likely to have between now and March 31, 2020 and b) how much it will cost the federal treasury to do the things Prime Minister Stephen Harper promised to do during the 2011 election once the budget was in balance.

The result of their number-crunching? From the 2014 fiscal year through to the 2020 fiscal year, Ottawa should post a combined surplus of $71.1 billion. (Reminder: Ottawa’s fiscal year ends on March 31 so “fiscal year 2015 or FY15” is the current fiscal year which began on April 1, 2014 and ends on March 31, 2015. By convention, fiscal years are denominated in the year they end.)

TD Bank says the cost of the 2011 campaign promises — which the Conservatives have already started to implement — will be a cumulative $19.9 billion through to FY20.

Read more…

The funny thing about surpluses …

- October 7th, 2014

The deficit/Surplus chart from the February budget. Bay Street economists are radically re-drawing this.

Last week in Brampton, Ont., Prime Minister Stephen Harper delivered some good, if surprising news, about Canada’s fiscal situation. Here’s the transcript (my emphasis):

I want to draw your particular attention to the numbers, the one between the dotted lines there for last year, the year completed, 2013-2014. That has been our estimate until today. That has been our estimate of the deficit last year and coming up after that of course this year, 2014-15, we still have a small deficit and are projecting surpluses after that. Read more…