David Akin - October 14th, 2014
New Brunswick held a general election as per its fixed election date law on Sept. 22. Because it’s a fixed-date election, none of the parties or candidates were surprised by the date of this election. The result? The New Brunswick Liberals, led by 32-year-old Brian Gallant, would oust the incumbent Progressive Conservatives led by David Alward and win a majority government.
In the riding of Saint John East, it was a very close battle but Liberal Gary Keating (pictured above) won by nine votes, a victory that only a judicial recount would certify. Keating scored 2,332 votes to incumbent Progressive Conservative MLA Glen Savoie who had 2,323 votes.
Three weeks later, Keating quit. Here is his statement, released today (my emphasis): Read more…
David Akin - September 17th, 2014
CBC New Brunswick Harry Forestell, left, takes no prisoners in the “re-do” interview with New Brunswick Liberal Leader Brian Gallant.
With just five full days of campaigning to go until New Brunswickers vote on Monday, Liberal Leader Brian Gallant will be struggling to recover from the worst media interview a politician ever gave in mid-campaign since Stéphane Dion got confused in the 2008 federal election.
But while Gallant’s mix-up, like Dion’s, involved a re-do, Gallant cannot blame his media interlocutor for a confusing, ill-worded question.
In the re-do, in fact, he did the exact opposite of making things right. He was forced to admit, time and again, his own errors and, in doing so, dissembled at least twice. Read more…
David Akin - August 30th, 2014
In this photo, displayed at federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s Flickr feed, Brian Gallant addresses a rally in Fredericton. A new poll from Forum Research says Gallant stands a good chance of being New Brunswick’s premier.
Brian Gallant’s New Brunswick Liberal Party held a commanding lead over incumbent Progressive Conservative Premier David Alward as the province’s 38th general election opened, the first public domain poll of the campaign concludes.
The poll, done by Toronto-based Forum Research and released Saturday, said Gallant’s Liberals had the support of 46% of voters compared to Alward’s PCs at 31%. The New Brunswick NDP, led by Dominic Cardy, was at 15% while the New Brunswick Greens led by David Coon were at 7%. Read more…
David Akin - August 29th, 2014
Robert Ghiz, premier of Prince Edward Island, speaks with the media, as premiers Kathleen Wynne of Ontario (R), Philippe Couillard of Quebec (2nd L) and David Alward of New Brunswick (top, R) look on during their Council of the Federation summit in Charlottetown on Thursday. (REUTERS/Christinne Muschi)
Earlier this year, during the Quebec provincial election, two internal party polls were released to the media. They were widely reported on as much for their contents as they were for the selective nature of the data released and the motives for releasing the poll. Both internal polls were released by parties that were trailing in several media-sponsored public domain polls. The incumbent Parti Quebecois would be thumped at the polls on election day by Philippe Couillard’s Liberals while the third party Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) pretty much ended up where it started — well back in third.
Every media-sponsored public domain poll showed a steady march during the campaign of increasing voter support for the Liberals and a steady drop by the PQ.
The only late campaign poll to show that the PQ was leading was one the PQ itself released. The CAQ released its internal poll showing that it was closer to the leaders than public domain polls.
It was clear in both cases that the motive for both the PQ and CAQ to release what turned out to be over-optimistic (to put it politely) polls was to boost the morale of campaigns that, at the time of the release of these polls, was flagging. Successful campaigns need volunteers and money and both of those can be harder to come by if polls are showing a campaign is blowing up, as the PQ campaign, as it turned out, was. (Eric Grenier of 308.com does a nice job on the Quebec issue here.)
Which brings us to New Brunswick. Read more…