Posts Tagged ‘new brunswick

Liberals held dominant lead at start of New Brunswick campaign

- August 30th, 2014
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In this photo, displayed at federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s Flickr feed, Brian Gallant addresses a rally in Fredericton. A new poll from Forum Research says Gallant stands a good chance of being New Brunswick’s premier.

Click here to see more photos of Trudeau’s visit to Gallant’s rally in Fredericton.

Brian Gallant’s New Brunswick Liberal Party held a commanding lead over incumbent Progressive Conservative Premier David Alward as the province’s 38th general election opened,  the first public domain poll of the campaign concludes.

The poll, done by Toronto-based Forum Research  and released Saturday, said Gallant’s Liberals had the support of 46% of voters compared to Alward’s PCs at 31%. The New Brunswick NDP, led by Dominic Cardy, was at 15% while the New Brunswick Greens led by David Coon were at 7%. Read more…

Leaked New Brunswick PC internal poll: All the details here …

- August 29th, 2014
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Robert Ghiz, premier of Prince Edward Island, speaks with the media, as premiers Kathleen Wynne of Ontario (R), Philippe Couillard of Quebec (2nd L) and David Alward of New Brunswick (top, R) look on during their Council of the Federation summit in Charlottetown on Thursday. (REUTERS/Christinne Muschi)

Earlier this year, during the Quebec provincial election, two internal party polls were released to the media. They were widely reported on as much for their contents as they were for the selective nature of the data released and the motives for releasing the poll. Both internal polls were released by parties that were trailing in several media-sponsored public domain polls. The incumbent Parti Quebecois would be thumped at the polls on election day by Philippe Couillard’s Liberals while the third party Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) pretty much ended up where it started — well back in third.

Every media-sponsored public domain poll showed a steady march during the campaign of increasing voter support for the Liberals and a steady drop by the PQ.

The only late campaign poll to show that the PQ was leading was one the PQ itself released. The CAQ released its internal poll showing that it was closer to the leaders than public domain polls.

It was clear in both cases that the motive for both the PQ and CAQ to release what turned out to be over-optimistic (to put it politely) polls was to boost the morale of campaigns that, at the time of the release of these polls, was flagging. Successful campaigns need volunteers and money and both of those can be  harder to come by if polls are showing a campaign is blowing up, as the PQ campaign, as it turned out, was.  (Eric Grenier of 308.com does a nice job on the Quebec issue here.)

Which brings us to New Brunswick. Read more…

How do we measure a politician’s job record?

- August 25th, 2014

Today on the campaign trail, New Brunswick Liberal Leader Brian Gallant was talking about his job creation plan and hammering the government of incumbent Progressive Conservative Premier David Alward government because it “it lost 3,900 jobs since October 2010, lost, more specifically, 6,500 full-time jobs.”

That phrase “since October 2010″ is an important qualifier but, in my view, an odd one as he and anyone else should be measuring the Alward government’s job performance record from September 2010, the month in which Alward was elected premier. In fact, as I point out in this review of the Alward government’s jobs record, the record is even worse if you start from September 2010 rather than October 2010.

So why September and not October? Read more…

The first whopper of the New Brunswick election campaign

- August 22nd, 2014
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New Brunswick Liberal Leader Brian Gallant, seen above at the 2014 Liberal Party of Canada convention in Montreal, announce his party’s healthcare proposals on Friday.
(JOEL LEMAY/AGENCE QMI)

Just as Ontario Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne tried to use Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper as a bogeyman early in her successful election campaign earlier this summer, so too is New Brunswick Liberal Leader Brian Gallant quickly introducing Harper as a character in the just-launched New Brunswick election campaign. Gallant is way ahead in the polls and is trying to unseat incumbent Progressive Conservative Premier David Alward.

On Saturday, federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau will campaign with Gallant and one would assume both Alward will be thrashed with whatever sins Liberals are accusing Harper of committing these days.

But let’s focus on what Gallant said on the campaign trail Friday, day two of the campaign. There’s this quote:
Read more…

Cutting deficits? Slashing government programs? Yes, that’s the NDP in New Brunswick

- June 20th, 2014

A New Democrat talking about slashing deficits? Balancing budgets? Cutting government waste? That would be New Brunswick NDP Leader Dominic Cardy.