Hmmm. Here’s our latest poll this morning, which I find difficult to believe. Minority PQ government? I don’t see that. At all. I can see Jean Charest losing big, sure. I can even see Francois Legault winning (minority, with the balance of power shared between the Liberals and the PQ, plus maybe 8-10 fringe party seats). But I do not, under any circumstanes, see a PQ victory. Pauline Marois is visibly controlled by the hardline separatists in her party, and there is no way Quebecers will vote for that. This isn’t the post-Meech 90s, after all.
For the record, I’m still clinging to my prediction from two weeks ago. I believe Quebeers will – like Alberta voters recently – thumb their noses at pollsters and commentators and vote the Liberals in again; minority government more likely than majority government. Yes, Quebecers are sick and tired of Charest. But as far as I can tell they are even more tired of old pur-et-dur pequistes and genuinely worried the CAQ may not be ready for the big leagues just yet.