Not seeing this at all

- August 25th, 2012

Hmmm. Here’s our latest poll this morning, which I find difficult to believe. Minority PQ government? I don’t see that. At all. I can see Jean Charest losing big, sure. I can even see Francois Legault winning (minority, with the balance of power shared between the Liberals and the PQ, plus maybe 8-10 fringe party seats). But I do not, under any circumstanes, see a PQ victory. Pauline Marois is visibly controlled by the hardline separatists in her party, and there is no way Quebecers will vote for that. This isn’t the post-Meech 90s, after all.

For the record, I’m still clinging to my prediction from two weeks ago. I believe Quebeers will – like Alberta voters recently – thumb their noses at pollsters and commentators and vote the Liberals in again; minority government more likely than majority government. Yes, Quebecers are sick and tired of Charest. But as far as I can tell they are even more tired of old pur-et-dur pequistes and genuinely worried the CAQ may not be ready for the big leagues just yet.

Categories: Quebec

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  1. Steve d'Eça says:

    I agree with you completely, Brigitte! It would be a complete disaster if the PQ gets elected – even if it is a minority government. I don’t believe Quebecers are so stupid as to vote in a PQ government. True, we are unhappy with Charest, but as of now, there is no other viable party to govern the province.

  2. Andrew Baldwin says:

    I hope that you are right. It seems that most Quebec elections the polling shows the sovereignist parties with more strength than they have on election day. I wonder if the problem isn’t interviewer bias. I suspect that interviewers are more likely to be young francophones, people that are more likely to be sovereignists. Respondents who support the PQ would be more likely to say so to such an interviewer; respondents who didn’t would be more likely to say that they were undecided than that they were planning to vote for the Liberals or the CAQ.

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