Will China get old before it gets too powerful?

- December 31st, 2012

I’ve long speculated that China’s one-child policy would lead to economic disaster for the country and eventually it would lead to China losing the political power it so greatly craves on the world stage.

Demographics matter. They matter a great deal.

James Liang, a professor of economics at both Stanford University and Peking University wonders if China is soon to fall into the demographic and economic mess that Japan has been experiencing for more than a decade.

Having looked at the case of Japan, now we turn back to the situation in China. Japan has a 1.3 total fertility rate and is trying desperately to encourage child-bearing so as to fight its way out of the aging population quagmire. Meanwhile, as its Sixth Population Census showed, China has a 1.2 fertility rate and is still implementing the One-Child Policy that restricts child-bearing. Such a contrast looks particularly glaring.

Perhaps in Chinese policymakers’ eyes, what they see are just the crowds filling the Beijing or Shanghai subways, and therefore are convinced that China still has too many people. Nevertheless the effect of a population policy takes time to see. Thus, in the process of today’s formulation of policy, the conditions in 20 or 30 years’ time ought to be anticipated.

According to a statistical forecast coming from the U.S., if China maintains its current total average fertility rate, its demographic structure diagram by 2040 will be nearly the replica of that of Japan today. The series of issues that Japanese society is facing today are likely to befall us.

Categories: Politics

Subscribe to the post

1 comment

  1. Sarah says:

    I believe we lost our freedoms. While we “law-abiding tax payer” are purchasing groceries for dinner, police are searching our cars, and touching our property without our permission. It doesn’t matter if you play by the rules, because we are being punished anyway. They take away our right to smoke in public, they want to ban everything – bibles, bags, speech and at the same time give all these thing to prisoners. Prisoners don’t have to work, they don’t have to worry about paying bills, they don’t have to worry about preparing dinner, increasing car insurance rates, groceries, bags, by-laws, lawns, traffic. They don’t have to worry about the 250,000 people that have a direct impact in our traffic commutes and in our community. Our medias conditioned us how to hate. Hate crimes are active only in the west. Hate crimes don’t apply to the east. They can kill our journalists, they can issue death warrants to countries, but they will never be labelled as a hate crime. NEVER. I believe in free speech, but when free speech is being used as plot to target certain individuals within our country – I believe it is in violation. THESE ARE DANGEROUS TIMES.

Comments are closed.