Bruce Carson, right, is shown in this picture for AlbertaVentrure.com during a photo shoot for Alberta's Most Influential people 2010, shot by John Gaucher Images. He's accused of arranged a deal to benefit his girlfriend, escort Leanna, left, shown in a photo from her Ottawa Escorts page.
I’ve been an election skeptic for years, saying no when most reporters are saying, “An election is coming.”
Most of this week I’ve been away from Parliament Hill trying to enjoy March Break with my family. Yet even from this distance I can see that the Bruce Carson story is a game changer.
While I had believed that an election could be avoided next week, that the budget would contain something for the NDP, the Carson story is likely the straw that broke the camel’s back. Smelling scandal in the Ottawa air, I’m not sure how the opposition parties will be able to hold themselves back from voting against the government next week.
In the end the government may be exonerated, Carson himself may be. We won’t find any of that out for sure until after May 9th, the now likely election day.
Will the election change anything?
As Warren Kinsella was pointing out last Sunday, it took the Conservatives more than a year to get the sponsorship scandal working for them and in the end even that wasn’t enough to push Harper over. Winning the election in January 2006 came from a flawlessly run Conservative campaign, a hapless Liberal campaign and an investigation by the RCMP into the possibility of insider trading.
Scandals can take time to hurt a government but this one is easy to explain and involves some salacious details.
Are we headed to an election for sure now?
We won’t really know until the end of next week but for the first time since the late summer of 2008, I’d put my money on yes.