Look, I’m not trying to be a sensationalist or scaremonger here. I’m just trying to tell you some plain facts you should be aware of so you can act accordingly during the G8-20 summits period at the end of this month.

For starters, how do I know for sure there will be rioting?

Because (some of) the people who will be doing the rioting say they will be rioting on our streets.

They’ve done it before. They will do it in Toronto. They will do it again in the future somewhere else. It’s what they do.

Granted, militant protesters often talk a bigger game before they come face-to-face with heavy police presence, but every G20 summit venue has experienced some form of rioting.

On websites, blogs and other Internet posts (Twitter, too) they even say when and where some of the rioting will occur. In other cases, they’re just priming the pump for freeform mayhem.

Of course the cops are monitoring the same posts I’m seeing. And, of course, the people putting up that information know that. It’s a very strange symbiosis.

Here’s what one “anonymous” posting has to say:

“You didn’t think Riot 2010 was over yet, did you?

“Day to day, the tentacles of global capitalism threaten to choke the life from us, and opportunities to attack its nucleus rarely present themselves. Rest assured that when the G20 comes within striking distance this June, we won’t miss.”

One key thing to remember is that not everyone who is protesting against the G8-20 summits will be rioting.

I know that sounds obvious and stupid, but you have to know there will be about four or five (or maybe six, seven or eight, depending on how you want to cut the pie) different layers of protest going on at the same time when the leaders of the world’s 20 most powerful economies meet in Toronto June 26-27.

There’s a fairly broad-based segment of the Canadian population opposed, in varying degrees,  to globalization, oppression, exploitation, militarism, sexism, racism and a dozen other “isms” that will be represented in peaceful (if sometimes rowdy) marches, protests and other anti-G20 activities.

(I say “in varying degrees” because some things are absolutes and others are “Yes, but…”)

The Canadian Labour Congress, Ontario Federation of Labour and a couple of other organizations (like Oxfam and Greenpeace) have a major protest march planned on Saturday, June 26, from Queen’s Park to Trinity Bellwoods Park west of the G20 security zone.

About 20,000 people are projected to take part in that march. (How can you possibly come up with an estimate like that? Well, the labour movement has a pretty good fix on how many people they can draw for a particular type of event. The G20 would be an upper-end event.)

The participants will range from babes in arms and toddlers with their parents to raging grannies and middle-aged high school teachers wearing Tilley hats. They’re your family, friends and neighbours and they should be peaceful — although large groups of people can do strange things in intense situations.

The G8-20 Integrated Security Unit has sanctioned that march and promises to respect everyone’s right to express their opinions freely — if it’s done peaceably and respects other people’s rights. I think that means “Don’t cross this line in the sand.” Or concrete. Or asphalt. Or whatever.

The potential rioters also seem to have declared this particular march a violence-free zone — for at least the start of the march.

But look out later.

A militant anti-G20 protest action dubbed “Get Off the Fence” is planned that Saturday afternoon “after the permitted march.”

Moms and pops, get your kids and grannies to safety as soon as you’ve expressed your opposition to G20.

In an online “callout” from a self-anointed anarchist group I won’t bother doing PR for, here’s what “deaner” has to say about Get Off the Fence:

“On Saturday, June 26th, we will form an anti-colonial, anti-capitalist presence to walk in solidarity with the big People First march, before continuing on towards the fence to confront the police state and Toronto’s corporate culture. This action will be militant and confrontational, seeking to humiliate the security apparatus and make Toronto’s elites regret letting the dang G20 in here.”

So expect a certain violence-prone portion of the Saturday marchers (generally the ones dressed in all-black or wearing combat gear with their faces masked) to be mingling with the grannies and toddlers.

Here’s “deaner” again:

“We will not condemn or attempt to prevent or control actions being taken by others, and will vigorously resist state repression against anyone. That said, respect for diversity of tactics also means not smashing things while we’re part of the labour child-friendly march, and remembering that although we might think certain tactics are pointless/annoying, we should not needlessly antagonize those people.”

So all you folks marching in solidarity with the vicariously vicious, just  remember they consider you  “those people” — not much different than me or the cops or any other well-intentioned, useless idiot.

The cops generally speak in terms of violent activists being “only” 1% or 2% of most protest gatherings of this nature.

If the overall Saturday march crowd is, in fact, 20,000, that still means a hard core of 200-400 extreme protesters are prepared to rampage in downtown Toronto that afternoon.

In general, the riotous assemblies work on a very loose field structure of “affinity groups” with broad common goals and no central head that can be cut off.

An affinity group may be two people or 20 who have the same level of political consciousness, so to speak, and are comfortable undertaking the same level of political violence.

So the cops will be dealing with small swarms of vicious fishes in the sea of general protest. Some will be little nippers and some will be sharks.

The most aggressive affinity groups will be trying to breach the security fence and probably trashing the financial district. In between, they’ll be trying to fight and/or evade cops.

The groups are usually small, in part to reduce informer infiltration but also because the affinity groups work as autonomous, fast-moving, self-directed units of disruption and destruction. The old term for “affinity group” would have been “cell.”

If you’re not part of an “affinity group,” I would advise anyone else to clear the area Saturday afternoon and let the pros — on both sides — do their stuff. One way or the other, bad things will happen — and it shouldn’t happen to you.

At the other end of the protest scale from violent “affinity groups” is the 2010 People’s Summit, being held in Toronto the weekend prior to the G20 Summit.

It will be a good old-fashioned talkfest with seminars, discussion groups and other socially aware activities. Very respectable, very intellectually intense, very relevant, very peaceful, maybe a little boring.

The People’s Summit is so above-board that its opening event Friday evening, June 18, will be held at The Carlu — the fancy “event space” on the 7th floor of College Park that used to be the old Eaton auditorium and restaurant.

The Carlu, for God’s sake. And hosted by Mary Walsh. Joe Hill would spin in his grave. Or maybe laugh — at Mary Walsh.

(I’m not dumping on Mary Walsh or the event. It will probably be a lot more fun than some of the excruciatingly politically correct events planned by folks further out on the activism limb. All in all, I’d rather go to a movie.)

In between these two extremes is the Toronto Community Mobilization Network that walks a fine line between advocating political action that works and condoning violence.

Without endorsing any specific actions, it acts as an organizational and information clearinghouse, publicizing and promoting events ranging from a “Roving Kiss-In: Queering the G20” in the financial district on June 22 to the big People First march on June 26 to “autonomous direct actions” on June 27, the final day of the G20 Summit.

Dubbed “Getting Down to Business” — which seems to be a fairly obvious pointer to the financial district near the G20 security zone — those “autonomous direct actions” are a euphemism for semi-organized activities that are almost certainly illegal (not that that’s a bad thing), probably destructive (that’s generally a bad thing) and could well result in people being hurt (that’s a very bad thing, if you didn’t know already).

One planned action — publicized by the TCMN — that seems to concern the cops a bit is Saturday Night Fever — a roving street party from dusk to dawn on the night of June 26-27.

It has the potential to be an all-night riot in the downtown core.

As one Saturday Night Fever web posting advises participants:

“Dress for a dance party, but consider bringing with you the things you would to a street protest.”

There are all sorts of other protests planned for the G20 summit weekend and the week leading up to it, but you get the general idea.

I will be checking out the action, just because I’m Nosey Parker and have the curiosity of a cat — but I plan to stay on the outer edges of whatever is happening. And I’ll be on a bike so I can make a fast getaway when things start turning nasty.

And they will. Believe me. You’ve been warned.