A week ago in the Canada West, for the most part, everything held steady with respect to playoff positions in hockey, basketball and volleyball.
This week? Not so much.
Friday and Saturday proved to be a fairly significant swing weekend on a few fronts, with a number of Manitoba-based teams watching their situation worsen as we get closer and closer to the final games and matches of the season.
This column was originally to be a post about the biggest winners and losers among Manitoba schools from this weekend until, upon further examination, it was hard to make a case that any of the 11 Manitoba-based teams still in the hunt for the post-season could be considered to have gained anything from the various results around the conference.
Indeed it was a bleak weekend for this province, with only Manitoba’s sweep of No. 1 Trinity Western in Friday night men’s volleyball standing as a notch. That, however, was tempered somewhat by Trinity returning the favour on Saturday to make the weekend a wash.
First, for the Manitoban teams still hunting, an informal list ranking them from “nothing to worry about” to “if you’re not worried right now, you may not be conscious.” This isn’t about who’s in the best situation, really, but rather who is the most comfortable given the results of this past weekend:
- • Bisons men’s volleyball
- • Bisons men’s hockey
- • Bobcats men’s volleyball
- • Wesmen women’s volleyball
- • Bisons women’s volleyball
- • Bisons men’s basketball
- • Wesmen women’s basketball
- • Wesmen men’s volleyball
- • Bobcats women’s volleyball
- • Bisons women’s hockey
- • Bobcats men’s basketball
So, in saying that, let’s look at who took the biggest hits from the results of the past two days. Because of the copious possibilities for fluctuation in the standings, from here on we’ll do our best to just deal in ‘likelihood’.
GLANCING SHOT
Bisons men’s volleyball
Damage: Minimal.
The Bisons surely didn’t like how they went out Saturday with TWU, but that sweep (26, 24, 22) was as competitive a three-setter as you’ll see. The Bisons should have at least gone four, you could argue, what with having a 24-22 lead in the second set before surrendering the next four points. Yet you can’t nitpick too much with the Bisons this weekend. They knew going in that a split would not gain them much ground in their quest to be the top seed in the conference, but if you had proffered them a 1-and-1 with the previously-undefeated defending champions they’d have been hard-pressed to turn it down.
So in the end, not a ton of damage was done to the Bisons who, thanks to that Friday win, are still two matches up on third-place Alberta and in no danger of falling out of one of the hosting positions.
Bisons men’s hockey
Damage: Self-inflicted
Oh the glorious chance the Herd had to close out the weekend sitting atop the Canada West conference if not for a stunning letdown Saturday night. The Bisons held a 4-2 lead after two, but watched as the Lethbridge Pronghorns pulled to within a goal and then, in the final four minutes, snapped two past Joe Caligiuri in the span of 2:26 to end Manitoba’s five-game win streak.
So instead of pulling into a tie with Alberta (upset by UBC on Saturday) for first, the Bisons are instead tied with Saskatchewan for second, two points back. There should be no panic, however: The Bisons hold two games in hand on the Golden Bears and own tiebreakers over both Alberta and Saskatchewan, giving them a slight edge in the quest for first or second.
ROPE-A-DOPE
Bobcats men’s volleyball
Damage: Time to start swinging
The Bobcats are in this lofty standing in large part because they had the benefit of standing by and watching the other teams punch out. Winners of seven in a row, the Cats find themselves suddenly in a three-way tie for fourth place with Calgary and UBC, which BU visits this weekend in a doubleheader that you have to consider must-win if you’re looking for Brandon to be in the top four. The Bobcats close out the conference season next week at home against Alberta. Once 2-7, that the Bobcats can even entertain thoughts of hosting a first-round series is a feather in their cap.
BODY BLOW
Wesmen women’s volleyball
Damage: Rattled, but still on feet.
The Wesmen, who have officially clinched a playoff spot, lost their fourth straight match with juggernaut UBC handing U of W a pair of L’s at the Duckworth Centre. The results weren’t that surprising considering the T-Birds’ current run as No. 1 and four-time defending champion, but the Wesmen nevertheless escaped this weekend with only a few minor scars in their conference standing. Thanks to two losses by Manitoba, currently on a coinciding four-match swoon, the Wesmen maintained a two-match lead over the fifth-place Bisons for the final hosting position.
Still, over these past two weeks, the Wesmen have watched their standing slip from second to fourth and even the grasp on that position is tenuous with the Bisons and third-place Alberta Pandas both holding two matches in hand. At this point, it may not matter much. It looks as though U of W, which has just two matches left, both against U of M, is destined for either fourth or fifth place and that first-round playoff series could very well be held at U of M’s IGAC or U of W’s Duckworth. Point being: The fervor over home-court advantage is diminished by the fact that road trip is a 15-minute car ride. There exists a real chance a 4-5 series could be between Alberta and Winnipeg with the Wesmen heading to Edmonton.
Either way, Winnipeg has not done itself any favours in the past two weeks and is currently surviving off the efforts of its tremendous start to the season.
Bisons women’s volleyball
Damage: Momentarily stunned
There is no shame in losing to the No. 3-ranked team in the nation, but the Bisons have, two weeks in a row now, failed to take advantage of losses by their crosstown rivals and have instead left themselves with work to do to climb into the top four. The crucial series against Winnipeg this weekend will determine, for all intents and purposes, who will finish fifth. After all, the Wesmen will be done their matches and the Bisons have two gimmes against Saskatchewan to close the season. So, sure, there’s been some missed opportunities for the Bisons, but they can easily regroup and make a late surge. With, at the least a split, Manitoba, which trails Winnipeg in the sets won/lost tiebreaker (+12-+6), could conceivably still pass the Wesmen, but that would likely put the onus on the Bisons to score a pair of sweeps the following week. Score two this weekend, however, and the Bisons are in the catbird seat.
1-2 COMBO
Bisons men’s basketball
Damage: Bloodied but still strong
Here’s the thing: The Bisons are to be blamed for the conundrum they’re currently in as much as they’re to be acclaimed for their six-game win streak in the middle of the season that turned things around and got them to 8-4. Now 8-8 following four straight defeats, the Bisons still have their hands on the wheel, but the Calgary Dinos have sped up and are in position to jack that ride — not to mention pursuers Regina, Brandon and Trinity Western (in wild-card crossover) who each still have mathematical shots at getting in. Now the Dinos come to town for the most critical weekend of the season. Even if the Bisons fend off Calgary this weekend — a split? a sweep? — it doesn’t solve anything with a tough road trip to Saskatchewan following. Calgary and Regina can max out at 10 wins (keep dreaming, Cougars), Brandon at nine. You do the math — Manitoba has to find a W or two to salt this thing away, but the Bisons can at least say they’re a half-stride ahead in this race.
A STIFF HOOK
Wesmen women’s basketball
Damage: Staggered but going the distance
Thanks to a three-game losing streak coinciding with Calgary’s four-game win streak, hopes of getting in via the Prairie Division route are all but dead (not toe-tagged, but the coroner has been alerted). So U of W’s main hope is through the crossover wild-card and trying to beat out the fourth-place Pacific team, the Victoria Vikes, whom the Wesmen (8-8) beat in their one meeting a little over a week ago. Victoria, at 6-8, had the bye and now has doubleheaders with UBCO and UBC left on the schedule. The Vikes, who lose the tiebreaker of head-to-head should they only get to eight wins, have to find a way — assuming a sweep of lowly UBCO — to pull an upset of 12-2 UBC in one of the final two games of the season.
Winnipeg’s final four games are against teams above them in the standings — vs Saskatchewan (11-4) and at Calgary (11-5) — and the Wesmen could make their breathing room a whole lot airier with even one win in those four.
Wesmen men’s volleyball
Damage: Wobbling
The Wesmen are by no means a lock for the post-season and, as it is, they may need some help to stay in that seventh and final playoff spot. At 7-11, the Wesmen have two matches remaining against Manitoba while 5-11 UBC-Okanagan has four matches left to try and get a berth in its first season in the Canada West. The Wesmen have enough of an edge in sets won/lost that the pressure is on UBCO to find three wins and surpass Winnipeg outright (assuming U of W can’t pull one upset of Manitoba). With Saskatchewan and Thompson Rivers left on the Heat schedule, the task is tough but not out of the question.
HAYMAKERS
Bobcats women’s volleyball
Damage: Eyes swollen, vision blurry
The damage unloaded on the Bobcats (8-8) was done the previous weekend in Kamloops, B.C., when BU went 0-for-2 in a doubleheader against Thompson Rivers, the team that now stands in position to usurp the final playoff spot. The Bobcats have but four matches left and two of those are on the road against UBC, so you might as well just say they have two matches left — the season-ending doubleheader at home against Alberta. Because they have played less matches than 8-10 Thompson Rivers, the Bobcats are currently in seventh by percentage points, but without a win in their final four (and some help), they’re likely to lose the tiebreak to TRU, which has two matches against UBCO remaining and an edge in sets won/lost.
Brandon spent its bye week hoping Saskatchewan could score even just one win, but more nails were put in the Bobcats coffin as the Wolfpack won two and stretched their string of wins to four. It seems quite likely that the Bobcats will come home Feb. 10-11 needing a sweep of No. 4-ranked Alberta to squeak in.
Bisons women’s hockey
Damage: The cutman is busy
An absolutely debilitating weekend for the Bisons on home ice where they lose two to fourth-place Lethbridge despite outshooting the Horns 67-38, including 30-13 in a 1-0 Friday loss. As a result, the Pronghorns are now five points clear of the Bisons who, despite having two games in hand, are now in the position of needing wins and help to avoid missing the playoffs for the first time in eight years. Lethbridge has two games against Regina (6-13-1), so the Bisons don’t exactly have the most reliable horse to rely on in that race.
To catch Lethbridge, the Bisons need a minimum of six points in their final four games, but that would also require Regina scoring two upsets. A four-game win streak, which would mean taking conference-leading Calgary down twice, would put Manitoba at 31 points, but even that would require Regina stealing a point from Lethbridge. The other outside possibility is catching third-place Saskatchewan, which sits at 14-4-2 with 30 points. In that scenario, Manitoba could get in by scoring seven points out of a possible eight and hoping the Huskies don’t earn a point in their final four games, thereby giving Manitoba the tiebreak. Not easy.
Bobcats men’s basketball
Damage: Mouthguard just got knocked into the 18th row
We can break down every possible scenario in a playoff race that legitimately includes five teams racing for two spots and we can lay out every tiebreaker and crunch every number that would get the Bobcats into the playoffs, but the reality is Brandon had better win all four of its games if it wants to dance. No one expected the Bobcats to go into Saskatoon and get wins this weekend and the Huskies showed them how far they are from the elite of the conference. They are much improved from a season ago, but the injury to Emerick Ravier a few weeks back was crippling to a team that doesn’t boast a lot of depth as it is. So here’s your reality Brandon Bobcats: You are mathematically still in the playoff hunt but, if I may be so bold, you’re not really a playoff team. You see, playoff teams beat good teams. Playoff teams don’t split with teams that had two wins coming in. Playoff teams, even the ones on the fringe, find a way to steal one here and there. Playoff teams don’t go on five-game losing streaks at the most important time of the season, as you have done. And none of this is meant as any slight to the Bobcats who, as I said, are light years ahead of where they were last season. It’s just not your year.
But, if after all of that, you still don’t believe me, then the grim truth is that you need (and I mean NEED) four wins. And then hope to whatever gods you believe in that ’9′ is somehow the cutoff point for getting in. (Irrespective of tiebreakers for a moment, that would mean this would have to happen: Manitoba 0-4; Calgary 2-2, Regina 3-2).
For now, just get started this weekend and send the BU Gym, in its last season of operation, out in style with two must-haves against Lethbridge. If you do that, we’ll re-evaluate your condition. Anything less, however, and the ref will be standing over you waiving his arms and yelling “it’s over!”
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Twitter: @LarkinsWSun